Britain’s Sixth Carbon Budget: what you need to know
The UK government plans to set the Sixth Carbon budget in law, thereby committing to cut carbon emissions by 78% by 2035, compared to 1990 levels.
For the first time, the carbon budget will incorporate emissions from international aviation and shipping.
Here’s everything you need to know:
What is the Sixth Carbon Budget?
Under the Climate Change Act of 2008, the UK government is required to define a carbon budget for each five-year period leading up to the 2050 emissions target. Each budget puts a cap on the amount of greenhouse gases that can be emitted in the UK within this period.
Originally, the overall objective was an 80% emission reduction by 2050, but in 2019 this was replaced by a target of net zero emissions by 2050.
So far, five carbon budgets have been enshrined in law, covering the period from 2008 to 2032. In the Sixth Carbon Budget report, the Climate Change Committee (CCC) laid out new targets for 2033 to 2037.
According to Lord Deben, the chairman of the CCC, this latest report is “the product of the most comprehensive examination ever undertaken of the path to a fully decarbonised economy.”
It marks a critical point in Britain’s transition away from carbon, as it is the first advice that has been given by the committee since the UK announced its net zero by 2050 ambition in 2019.
What’s the significance of international aviation and shipping (IAS) emissions being incorporated?
Previous carbon budgets did not explicitly account for emissions from aviation and shipping. Instead, leaving ‘headroom’ for them by setting lower targets for other sectors.
The committee now states that this approach is no longer sufficient given the importance of these emissions. Treating IAS emissions as separate from the rest could also be seen as favouritism towards the aviation and shipping industries, it says.
While the Balanced Net Zero Pathway outlined in the report does allow for some growth in the aviation sector, it also assumes almost 10% of the total distance covered in the air will be flown by hybrid aircraft. A further reduction in emissions is predicted to come from efficiency gains and sustainable aviation fuels, such as zero-carbon synthetic jet fuel.
Zero-carbon fuels are also expected to be the main driver of emissions reduction in shipping. The report predicts that current levels of emissions will hold relatively flat until 2030, before dropping off sharply when these new fuels become commercially viable.
Is the UK on track to meet its targets?
Climate experts worry that previous and current commitments on greenhouse gases have not prompted sufficient changes in policy — putting the country on a path to overshoot its targets by a significant number of years.
Chris Venables, of the Green Alliance think tank, told the Guardian: “It’s great news that the government will put the 2035 target into law, and including aviation and shipping is genuine global climate leadership. But it’s increasingly jarring for this long-term ambition not to be backed up by action in the here and now. The clock is running down to COP26 in November, and a detailed and fully funded net zero plan is needed well before then.”
According to the CCC, the UK has stayed within the first carbon budget (2008 to 2012) as well as the second (2013 to 2017), and is on track to outperform the third (2018 to 2022). It notes that the country is not on track to meet targets for the fourth and the fifth budgets however, saying that “more challenging measures” will need to be introduced.
For the fifth budget in particular, emissions must fall faster than they would on the current trajectory, Mike Thompson from the CCC told Carbon Brief.
To bring the fifth budget in line with the new net zero ambition, the legislated cap on emissions does not need to change, he adds. The government could bring international aviation and shipping into the scope of its budget instead.
The gap between the current trajectory and where it needs to be to reach net zero is highlighted by a report from Cambridge Econometrics. According to their analysis, Boris Johnson’s Ten Point Plan for a Green Industrial Revolution does not align with the 2050 target.
The CCC is equally pessimistic about the government’s current strategy. In a report published last year, it stated that just two of 31 key policy measures had been met over the previous year. It called on the administration to “seize the opportunity to make the COVID-19 recovery a defining moment in tackling the climate crisis.”
While the newly announced carbon budget is the most ambitious yet, the details on how it will be achieved remain vague. The CCC report paints a picture of a country where electric vehicles quickly become the norm, electricity is generated with zero emissions, and planes and ships are powered by futuristic fuels. But, a press release from 10 Downing Street states that the new budget “does not follow each of the Climate Change Committee’s specific policy recommendations.”
“The government will look to meet this reduction target through investing and capitalising on new green technologies and innovation, whilst maintaining people’s freedom of choice, including on their diet.”
With COP26 around the corner, the question is whether the UK will take on a leadership role in the fight against climate change — by enacting specific policy measures that will help it meet its stated goals.
